With many in the market calling the latest drop in Bitcoin (BTC) the start of a long bear stretch, veteran trader Alessio Rastani offers a different view. In his recent interview with Cointelegraph he argues that rather than marking the end of the bull cycle, current conditions may signal a high-probability short-term rally — a setup that historically preceded substantial price gains about 75% of the time.
Rastani highlights several market factors: oversold technicals, extreme fear among retail investors, sentiment indicators, and a correlation between equities and crypto that tends to flip during broader market rebounds. He also points out that the recent high may not have been a classic “blow-off top,” suggesting that the cycle’s peak is possibly not yet behind us.
In this context, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook looks brighter than many expect — provided macro conditions remain supportive and institutional flows don’t dry up.
What Rastani’s Outlook Means & What to Watch For
Rastani’s bullish case rests heavily on historical chart patterns often dismissed by mainstream analysts. The so-called “death cross” — when the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day — has triggered bearish sentiment, but Rastani argues that such patterns have regularly preceded rallies rather than long-term declines when combined with other signals like oversold sentiment and institutional momentum.
If you are a medium- to long-term investor, this perspective may justify a measured exposure to Bitcoin. However, volatility remains a real risk. Even if a rally kicks off, swings might be sharp, and the ride could be rough before any upside. Retail investors and recent entrants — those sensitive to drawdowns — should maintain caution and consider their risk appetite carefully. Timing and emotional discipline matter.
A few things are worth watching closely: possible macroeconomic triggers (like central-bank moves or global equity behavior), ETF and institutional inflows, and how sentiment evolves if Bitcoin revisits support zones. If BTC breaks upward, the rally could attract renewed attention; if markets panic again, shallow rallies may collapse quickly.
Bitcoin’s short-term rally scenario underscores the uncertain, high-stakes nature of crypto: big upside potential, but equally significant risks.
Conclusion: A Rally Is On the Table — But With Caution
Alessio Rastani’s conviction about a 75% chance of a short-term rally for Bitcoin challenges prevailing bearish narratives. The combination of technical oversold conditions, extreme fear among market participants, and structural market shifts lends weight to his view. Still, this is not a guarantee — rather a plausible scenario that depends heavily on macroeconomic stability and institutional interest.
If you believe in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and can tolerate volatility, this may be a moment to stay alert and possibly enter selectively. But for risk-averse investors or those new to crypto, prudence and conservative position sizing remain wise.
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