Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system may be poised for a dramatic shift over the next few decades if institutional adoption and trade usage expand significantly, according to analysts at the US-based asset manager VanEck. Their long-term valuation framework projects that Bitcoin could trade around $2.9 million per coin by the year 2050 under a set of structural adoption assumptions.
The foundation of VanEck’s outlook is built on a trade settlement pivot and a reserve adoption pivot. In this view, Bitcoin moves beyond purely speculative investment and is woven into the mechanisms that underpin cross-border commerce and national reserve management.
Under the firm’s base scenario, Bitcoin would settle between 5 and 10 percent of international trade transactions by mid-century, and around 5 percent of domestic trade use cases. If realized, this level of usage would place Bitcoin on par with some traditional major currencies in terms of global settlement share.
VanEck researchers Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush say this scenario reflects a potential 15 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from current price levels over the next 25 years. In order for the model to hold, Bitcoin must progressively be accepted as a medium to settle real economic value, especially beyond capital markets and into goods and services exchange.
Global Trade and Monetary Flows
Today, cross-border trade is dominated by the US dollar, which accounts for nearly 48 percent of global transaction settlement volumes, followed by the euro and British pound.
In this context, Bitcoin would need significant growth in everyday transactional usage to approach a 5 to 10 percent share — an ambition that reflects emerging adoption in jurisdictions with constrained financial access or high inflation.
Beyond trade settlement, VanEck’s framework also factors in potential central bank reserve holdings of Bitcoin. Their hypothesis suggests that sovereign institutions may diversify a small portion of their assets — roughly 2.5 percent — into Bitcoin over the next several decades as confidence in traditional fiat reserve assets erodes and digital assets mature.
If Bitcoin were to achieve both trade settlement usage and partial reserve allocation at these levels, it would account for approximately 1.66 percent of the world’s total financial assets in the VanEck model.
Scenarios Above and Below the Base Case
While the $2.9 million price estimate represents the firm’s calculated base case, VanEck also outlines scenarios above and below this target.
In a more pessimistic model where adoption stalls and growth remains subdued, Bitcoin could reach about $130,000 by 2050, implying a modest 2 percent CAGR. In a highly accelerated adoption case — a so-called bull scenario — the firm’s research forecasts a world where Bitcoin captures much larger markets, with a price potential exceeding $50 million per coin by 2050.
These divergent outcomes underscore how central assumptions around adoption, settlement usage, and monetary policy outcomes influence valuation models.
Adoption Trends and Global Footprint
Bitcoin is already being used in specific global contexts outside traditional financial systems, particularly in countries facing economic sanctions, limited banking services, or severe currency depreciation. VanEck notes that markets like Venezuela, Iran, and Russia have shown real-world usage of Bitcoin for trade and value transfer. However, G7 nations and major developed markets have yet to show widespread structural adoption for international trade settlement or official reserve inclusion.
This gap signals both a challenge and an opportunity: while Bitcoin has a growing base of users and institutions interested in its properties, mainstream global financial integration remains nascent.
Market Drivers and Structural Outlook
The firm frames this long-term growth in Bitcoin price not as a short-term speculative bet but as a hedge against structural deficiencies in existing sovereign debt and monetary regimes. VanEck’s analysts emphasize monetary debasement, liquidity expansion, and fiscal stress in major economies as underlying pressures that could drive demand for fixed-supply digital assets.
Nonetheless, the path toward broader trade settlement and reserve adoption is not guaranteed. Technical hurdles like scaling, regulatory environments, and geopolitical factors could shape how — or if — Bitcoin fulfills these assumptions.
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