The network’s first recalibration of the year offered marginal breathing room for miners, even as faster block times point to renewed pressure later this month.
Bitcoin’s mining network began 2026 with a modest easing in difficulty, marking the first adjustment of the year after months of relentless competition and tightening economics across the sector. The change, finalized on Thursday, reduced difficulty to 146.4 trillion, a small pullback that reflects slightly altered network conditions rather than a structural shift.
The adjustment comes after a bruising period for miners, many of whom spent 2025 navigating record difficulty levels, weaker prices, and rising operating costs. While the dip offers temporary relief, underlying indicators suggest it may be short-lived, with the network already producing blocks faster than the protocol’s target pace.
Mining difficulty is recalibrated roughly every two weeks to keep average block times close to 10 minutes. At the time of the latest adjustment, blocks were being mined in about 9.88 minutes on average, indicating that computing power on the network remains strong. If current conditions persist, the next adjustment is expected to push difficulty higher again.
Data from CoinWarz estimates that the next recalibration, projected around Jan. 22, could raise difficulty to approximately 148.2 trillion. Such a move would reverse the early-year dip and reinforce the broader trend of elevated competition that has defined Bitcoin mining over the past year.
Despite the recent decline, difficulty remains historically high. The metric climbed steadily throughout 2025, peaking at record levels before easing toward the end of the year. Even now, it sits only modestly below the all-time high of about 155.9 trillion reached in November, underscoring how crowded the mining landscape has become.
The pressure on miners has been building since the April 2024 halving, which cut block rewards in half and sharply reduced baseline revenue. Those effects were compounded in 2025 by challenging macroeconomic conditions and a cooling crypto market, creating what many operators described as the most difficult margin environment on record.
Profitability data highlights the strain. Miner hash price, a common measure of expected daily revenue per unit of computing power, fell below breakeven levels in November. Industry figures show it dropped under $35 per petahash per second per day, well below the roughly $40 level many miners consider necessary for sustainable operations.
External factors added to the squeeze. New US tariffs introduced during President Donald Trump’s term raised concerns about mining equipment supply chains and costs. At the same time, a sharp market sell-off in October triggered a broader crypto downturn, with Bitcoin prices sliding more than 30 percent in November and briefly dipping just above $80,000.
While financial pressures remain intense, the sector continues to push back against longstanding criticism of Bitcoin’s energy footprint. Recent analysis by independent researcher Daniel Batten argues that mining can strengthen electrical grids rather than destabilize them. Drawing on peer-reviewed studies and operational data, the research suggests that miners’ flexible power usage can help balance demand and potentially lower consumer electricity costs in certain markets.
Hardware economics are also shifting in response to the downturn. Bitmain, one of the industry’s largest manufacturers, has begun cutting prices aggressively across multiple generations of mining equipment. Promotional materials circulated in late December showed bundled offers that implied prices of around $4 per terahash for some high-efficiency machines, reflecting mounting pressure to stimulate demand.
For miners, the early 2026 difficulty adjustment offers a brief pause after a punishing year, but few expect lasting relief. Faster block times and projected increases in difficulty suggest that competition will remain fierce, keeping margins tight as the industry continues to adjust to the post-halving reality.
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